>> pelley: tonight, a shortage of water is keeping not just crops but the >> pelley: tonight, a shortage of water is keeping not just crops but the entire economy gov growing. ice government cuts its economic growth estimates. erthony mason looks at the drought and other threats to jobs. israel's prime minister shows how close he believes iran is to a nuclear bomb. how close is it? david martin looks into that. mark phillips on a controversy ealthe art world. she has that mystic smile, but ?s this a real mopa lisa? who says crime doesn't pay? jim axelrod on an auction of memorabilia from america's most notorious criminals. >> reporter: this was in clyde's waistband? captioning sponsored by cbs this is the "cbs evening news" with scott pelley. >> pelley: good evening. it turns out the economy is

growing even more slowly than we thought. the government told us that u.s. growth in the second quarter was an anemic 1.7%, but today, the commerce department put out a new estimate showing us it was even less than that, just 1.3%. and this is what caught our attention in the report-- the government said half of the downward revision can be blamed on the drought. it's destroying crops, including the corn in this field le roy, illinois. and on the land clayton arnold has been farming in walker, missouri, for 40 years. a new report today on the drought says it continues to get 5%rse. it now covers 65.5% of the lower 21.5and in 21.5% of that area, the area you see in red, the drought is extreme or exceptional. so we asked anthony mason to dig further into the impact the rtought is having on our

economy. t reporter: 90 miles southwest of dallas, in aquilla, texas, the drought has cut back ronnie gerik's cotton crop severely this year. f> it impacted not just myself but all the ag industry. >> reporter: in fact, the government now says the drought is slowing the entire economy, costing the country $12 billion in the spring. >> farmers don't have money to spend. they're not going to spend it, you know. and we have a nickel in our pocket, we'll probably go buy a new tractor. >> reporter: but the drought is just one of three headwinds holding back growth. the recession in europe is also eating into american exports, but nothing looms larger than washington's so-called fiscal cliff, the spending cuts and tax hikes that will kick in next year if congress and the administration can't end the rancor and agree on how to handle the deficit. the ratings agency fitch said today uncertainty about u.s.

fiscal policy is the single biggest near-term threat to the global recovery. when you see washington act the way it's been acting, does it make you more cautious? hr of course. >> reporter: bayard winthrop launched american giant, a new men's clothing business in san francisco this year. but the indecision in washington, he says, is holding him back. >> it doesn't breed a lot of optimism. so we're hiring, but we're not hiring as aggressively as i think we would be if i had real confidence that we were on a pathway towards growth nationally. >> reporter: so in effect, washington is undermining the ionomy. >> i think that the lack of substantial and positive debate is undermining the economy. >> reporter: one piece of good news today, weekly first-time unemployment claims dropped to a two-month low. bor the labor department says the economy actually added nearly 400,000 more jobs over the past year than originally estimated. w pelley: well, anthony, there's still about 12.5 million people who are unemployed. what does a quarterly growth

rate of 1.3% mean to them? >> reporter: typically, scott, you look for a growth rate of about 2% to really bring down re unemployment rate. so if we see a revision like that, it has significant impact on job growth, scott. >> pelley: not nearly enough to create jobs. anthony, thanks very much. economic growth and crops are not all that the drought is wrecking. a little bit later in the broadcast, we're going to show you what the dry weather is doing to houses. at the united nations today, israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, warned that iran's work to build a nuclear bomb will be irreversible by next summer. that is significant because he's never put a time frame like that on it before. >> and i believe that faced with a clear red line, iran will back down. and this will give more time for sanctions and diplomacy to convince iran to dismantle its nuclear weapons program altogether. >> pelley: now, iran's

president, mahmoud ahmadinejad, denies that iran is building a bomb. so we asked david martin to tell us more. >> reporter: it looked like a cartoon, but it was deadly serious. israel's prime minister netanyahu drew the red line that would trigger an attack on iran's nuclear program as clearly as it has ever been drawn. >> a red line should be drawn right here, before-- before iran completes the second stage of nuclear enrichment necessary to make a bomb. >> reporter: that second stage is taking place at this underground facility near the holy city of qum, where iran is enriching your uranium to a 20% level of purity, one step away from the 90% needed to build a bomb. according to the latest report by u.n. inspectors iran has about 200 pounds of 20% uranium, roughly two-thirds of what it

would need to build one nuclear device. at the current rate of enrichment, iran would have 20% uranium for one bomb in about 10 months, or as netanyahu told the u.n., by next spring or summer. after that, it would take just a few months more to enrich uranium to the 90% bomb grade level. netanyahu said iran's nuclear program must be stopped before then. >> before iran gets to a point where it's a few months away or a few weeks away from amassing enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. >> reporter: but as defense secretary panetta told norah o'donnell of "cbs this morning" earlier this month, the u.s. has a different red line. >> when they make the decision to go ahead and build a nuclear weapon, that, for us, is a red line. >> reporter: u.s. intelligence does not believe iran has made that decision yet. but netanyahu said it is too dangerous to rely on

intelligence to detect the decision made in secret. so he set his red line on something he can see-- uranium merichment. panetta used to worry israel ringt strike iran as early as this spring or summer. judging by what netanyahu said today, the time to worry will be next spring. >> pelley: david, thank you. the state department said today it's withdrawing more staff from mbe u.s. embassy in tripoli, libya, temporarily, they said, for security reasons. dee department wouldn't say whether there had been a threat. earlier this month, the u.s. consulate in benghazi, libya, was attacked and burned, and ambassador chris stevens and three other americans were killed. that attack took place amid violent protests that broke out over an internet movie that ridiculed islam. well, late today, the filmmaker, was arrested in los angeles. federal prosecutors say that by uploading the film on the internet, he violated the terms of his probation on a previous check fraud conviction.

iowa kicked off the primary and caucus season. eell, today it became the first battleground state to in the e neral election. at least 400,000 iowans are expected to vote before election day, november 6. in other battleground states, voting begins in colorado october 22, more than two million people are expected to cast early ballots there. in florida, balloting starts october 27 with more than four million early voters expected. john dickerson is in our washington bureau. he's our political director. and, john, i wonder what impact does all this early voting have on the campaigns? t reporter: well, the presidential race is now on two reacks-- the traditional election track headed towards november 6 and the early voting track, where what the candidates say and two in these battleground states ask influence votes being cast right now. both candidates have traveled to

early-voting states to implore voters to cast their ballots. barack obama will be preparing for debates in nevada, where cbs expects 65% of vote voters to vote early. his presence in the state of nevada stirs up activities for democrats who then will try to arck up their voters early. if a campaign can get lots of voters to vote early, then the campaign can spend its time and resources in other battleground states with other voters. >> pelley: these early votes aren't counted until election day. i wonder how do the campaigns know how people are voting early? >> the secretary of state in most of the early voting states hports daily the names of those who voted-- not how they voted, just that they did. what the campaigns then do is match that against the lists of voters they've identified over the years. so if mrs. jones has asked for an early ballot but isn't on that daily report, the campaign will contact her. this is why ground game matters. they often know what mrs. jones ndres about, and that's what they'll talk about when they call her to push her to vote. operatives from both parties joke that with voters will the

best way to stop the calls, the visits and the mail is to vote early. >> pelley: john, thanks very much. in pennsylvania, a judge held a hearing today on a challenge to the state law that requires voters to show a photo i.d. the judge has until tuesday to rule. and we asked wyatt andrews to fill us in on what's at stake. >> was this easy to get or too hard to get? >> it was very hard to get. >> reporter: 68-year-old doris rkark was turned down three ng fs applying for her pennsylvania voter i.d. card, nd every time, she says, the state wanted another document-- original birth certificate, original social security card. then she needed her husband's death certificate, when a clerk demanded proof of her married name. after four tries she got the card but resented all the obstacles. >> you feel like why am i going arough all these things? i'm not bin laden's wife, you know. i've been here all my life. vove been voting since it's been legal for me to vote.

>> reporter: clark's testimony in state court in pennsylvania represents a growing legal challenge to voter i.d. laws, specifically, how difficult some cuates have made it for voters to actually get the cards, more likely to live in poverty. >> hey, hey, ho-ho- >> reporter: democrats believe trict voter i.d. laws are part of a republican plan to suppress the vote of minorities. republicans say the laws are designed to prevent voter fraud with many, including governor nikki haley of south carolina, asking what's so hard about a photo i.d.? >> if you have to use picture i.d. to get on to a plane, it is common sense that you would use picture i.d. to protect the integrity of the voting process.

>> reporter: and that's what hakes the controversy in nnnnsylvania so important. state officials now say they've relaxed all of those old rules so that any voter who wants an i.d. card can get one before election day. it may be too late. scott, the judge has already warned he is thinking about an injunction. that's a sign that voter i.d. in pennsylvania is in jeopardy this year. >> pelley: wyatt, thank you. after the nfl ended its lockout of referees, it wasted no time sending the replacements home. e leleague got an ear full after the fill-ins blew a touchdown call monday night. last night, the nfl struck a new mentract agreement with the regular officials, and they are working the cleveland-baltimore game tonight. their average salary will jump from $149,000 to $205,000 by 0019. pensions will be phased out. new hires will get a 401(k) 1(k)ead. the drought has damaged crops,

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waist deep in the distant past. scientists said that this second picture shows pebbles packed together in a way that only water could have caused. curiosity's making its way toward a mountain from which the ancient water apparently flowed. early, we told you how the drought here on earth has parched the economy. well, dean reynolds is in st. louis, and he has found damage that you might not have expected. >> this crack has gotten worse. >> reporter: anna mendoza has a problem in her home and it's spreading. >> about three months ago i noticed this crack but it was very thin. and then in a matter of a month, it started getting bigger and bigger. >> reporter: with drought- related damage reported in 40 heates, the resulting cracks are driving homeowners up the wall. experts in the home repair business say damages could run over $1 billion. ou've gorack that you've got right here is a crack that we fn see from the outside. >> reporter: matt ford works for

helitech, a structural repair fo ructany in the midwest. >> what we're coming in and doing is installing steel piers in this impact area to raise the house back up to as close to a level position as we can get it. >> reporter: typically from ground level to about 10 feet deep, moist soil is constantly soving, but that soil is rock hard now, and prone to sudden shifts. homeowners can water their foundations, but in a long dry spell, it may not help. >> our business is probably up about 60%, compared to where we whed normally be this time of year because the problem is-- it's extensive. >> reporter: their usual esponse time of two to five days has grown to four to five weeks. >> in four to five weeks a crack can turn into a river, right? >> and one crack can become seven cracks. >> reporter: carol devaughan knows a lot about that. >> it's a little disconcerting to think your house might be fall in.

>> reporter: the crevasses in her family room and cracks in her fireplace will cost at least $25,000 to fix. >> this is the bracket on the pier. >> reporter: steel peers hold up her house no, along with a gloppy mix of lime and concrete. >> it's always something, isn't it? >> i've not had to deal with something quite like this one before. >> reporter: and devaughn has a warning for everyone else who may face the same problem-- drought-related damage is seldom covered by homeowners insurance. >> pelley: different painting, same smile. did da vinci paint a second mona lisa? that's next. restores visibly healthier skin ction formula in 3 days. neosporin® eczema essentials™.

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improve your lung function. get your first full prescription free and save on refills at advaircopd.com. >> pelley: there are only 15 known paintings by leonardo da vinci, but now mark phillips tells us the art world is debating whether there is a 16th, a second >> reporter: they sounded so ounded so. >> mona lisa, leonardo's earlier lirsion. >> reporter: she looks familiar- - same pose, same famous smile-- posethis mona lisa looks like the old mona lisa after a nip and tuck. ipe could be her younger sister. gerfact, the mona lisa monaation in geneva, a nonprofit group formed to investigate this painting, insists this is a second mona lisa, also painted by leonardo e wasnci, of the same woman when

she was 10 years younger than drawne that's drawn millions to the louvre museum in paris. to support their case, they mrepared a film providing an rray of old documents purporting to show leonardo painted the image twice. they provided what they said was scientific proof using modern sc quesning techniques and brought ra an f.b.i.-trained specialist to show that a 10-years-younger mona lisa would have looked like this. and they cited art experts. >> for me, this is an original of leonardo. >> reporter: no, it isn't, say other experts, like the man whose written numerous books to leonardo, oxford university's rtrtin kemp. >> i think this is a copy, yes, an nd it's a much-copied picture. >> reporter: the hint-- it's too perfect. onardo f fiddled with his chntings, changed things, and nois one shows no fiddling. well, ifs behind the claim? >> well, if it were an early version of the mona lisa, we're talking, what, $100 million-

plus. you name the sum. it would be an unbelievable sum of money. >> reporter: the second mona lisa-- if that's what it is-- isn't new. tor 100 years it was in an inlish country house and for 23 2ars it was kept in this house in london before it was bought y the american collector henry pulitzer. but only now is it being claimed it's the real thing or not. ondo phillips, cbs news, london. thereley: there's no art at the auction jim axelrod visited, but ahere is a love song written by al capone. that's next. [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus liquid gels speeds relief to your worst cold symptoms plus has a decongestant for your stuffy nose. thanks. that's the cold truth! it's eb. want to give your family the very best in taste, freshness, and nutrition?

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for more of the inside story, visit shinglesinfo.com >> there is an auction this weekend of rare of a fax from american history. jim axelrod shows us some of the most wanted items from america's most wanted. >> bobby livingston's family has been auctioning robber or fax 430 years, a letter from washington, a signed picture of einstein, but there are about to hold their biggest event ever at this new hampshire auction house and it is not the heroes who aren't headliners. >> washington, lincoln, churchill, al capone? >> al capone is one of those

figures, in effect iconic figure that represents something to american popular culture. >> even the gangsters get a white glove treatment? >> sunday 130 pieces of gangster memorabilia will go on the block. items gathered from private collectors during the last eight years. >> the type of interest that you're getting, i would not be surprised if this was a seventh of your option .. >> included is a musical love letter that al capone wrote to his wife ellen alcatraz. >> you are the bloom of the roses, the charm that reposes. what a sweetheart? >> he loved his wife. >> also featured are items found on bonnie and clyde right after the shootout that ended their bank robbery careers and their allies in 1934. >> this was in his waistband? >> this pistol was in his waistband when he was killed.

>> the couple captured the popular imagination during the depression, targeting the very banks that were foreclosing on homes and farms. >> 100,000 all done? >> this is worth more than $100,000, we estimate it to be worth twice that. >> he likes to say the real value of the collection is the gap that it exposes between fantasy and reality. >> these are desperate criminals, these are people that would shoot you, rob you, these were not glamorous al lost, living high on hog, you learn that they live a desperate life. >> when history becomes a commodity ... sometimes the bad guys are worth more than the good. >> and that is the cbs evening news for tonight. from cbs news all-around world, good night. >> good evening i am dana king @

>> i am alan martin. we have a developing story in navato where a child is in critical condition after being hit by a car. it happened near the intersection of navato boulevard and sandy creek way near san grant high-school. mike sugerman is there, what can you tell us? >> we don't have a lot of information but what we can tell you is that this is every parent's nightmare, and for a driver, a nightmare as well. the scene still has a bicycle in the middle of the road and that white s u v, the 11 year-old girl, as you mentioned, is in critical condition, she had just moved into the neighborhood a few weeks ago, riding her bicycle home from the middle school, and hit by that white suburban on the street there. and from what we can see, she was thrown at least 10 ft., originally taken to the navato community high-school but they really cannot do what she needed, she was airlifted to a trauma unit in another